ENERGY prices are likely to remain high for at least the remainder of the present decade as China and other emerging economies continue to drive strong demand, according to British Petroleum (BP) chief economist Christopher Ruhl.

His prediction comes at a time when oil prices have hit US$76 a barrel - their highest level in nearly a year - and when analysts are predicting further price increases.

'China alone generated almost half of the world energy growth over the past five years,' Mr Ruhl said in a presentation to the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan. During this period, oil prices have more than doubled while gas prices have risen by 75 per cent and coal prices by 46 per cent, he said.

China accounted for 70 per cent of the increase in global coal consumption over the past five years and one-third of the overall increase in primary energy consumption. The country's surging economic growth, centred on an investment boom, is likely to continue but there will be some 'slight deceleration' in energy consumption rates relative to GDP growth, Mr Ruhl said.

China now ranks second only to the US in terms of primary energy consumption, and appears set to overtake the US before long on current trends. Chinese consumption hit 1,698 million tonnes of oil equivalent last year, compared to the US level of 2,326 tonnes. But while consumption has begun to decline in the US it continued to grow at rates of 8.5 per cent in 2006.

The Chinese economy now consumes more than three times the amount of primary energy than that of Japan, where consumption has stabilised at around 500 million tonnes over the past decade. China is also way ahead of India where consumption reached 423 million tonnes last year, according to BP data.

However, China is 'very serious' about curbing its energy consumption, MrRuhl said, and the fact that global energy consumption has slowed relative to growth since last year offers 'some glimmer of hope' that future trends can be contained, he suggested. At the same time, carbon emissions have increased at a faster rate than energy consumption.

Asia-Pacific is becoming more energy hungry, as are other developing regions including Africa, the Middle East, the former Soviet Union and South and Central America, while consumption at OECD countries is either stabilising or slowing. It is the energy-intensive nature of emerging economies that is pushing global consumption and prices higher.

'Forward prices indicate that many market participants expect to see high energy prices sustained for at least the rest of the decade,' Mr Ruhl said.

OPEC cannot indefinitely control prices but demand for motor vehicles is likely to rise sharply in developing countries should the oil price fall back toward US$50 a barrel, MrRuhl said.